More on Prediction Markets and "The Wisdom of Crowds"

"It should not be surprising to hear that a great many people, when told of how prediction markets work, will claim that they can never produce meaningful results. After all, the market price, and therefore the prediction, comes solely from random people on the internet who decide to take a wild guess at who is likely to win... Certainly the opinion of an expert -- who has studied all the polls, and understands statistics and the math of the electoral college -- would produce a much more accurate prediction than just the average of the opinions of lots of John Q. Public's. And yet, that isn't the case. Prediction markets turn out to be remarkably accurate, typically more accurate than any individual expert can predict, as non-intuitive as it may seem." /karmatics.com/